A demographic shift threatens China's economic dominance as the world's second-largest economy grapples with an aging society and dwindling workforce.
According to NPR, China's population decreased by 1.39 million in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline, with the total population now standing at 1.408 billion.
The population decline reflects a broader trend across East Asia, where nations like Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong face similar challenges. This demographic shift has positioned China alongside Japan and several Eastern European countries experiencing population decreases, primarily due to rising living costs deterring young people from marriage and childbearing while they prioritize education and career advancement.
China's journey from implementing strict population control to facing a demographic crisis spans several decades. Following the Communist Party's rise to power in 1949, the nation experienced rapid population growth, with numbers doubling in just three decades despite significant losses during the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution.
The introduction of the "one child policy" after Mao Zedong's death marked a dramatic shift in population management. Women faced severe consequences for unauthorized pregnancies, including forced abortions, hefty fines, and the risk of their children being denied legal identity.
Rural areas became the focal point of these control measures, where traditional preferences for male offspring persisted. The policy led to widespread selective abortions, creating a significant gender imbalance that continues to affect social stability.
Current statistics reveal that 22% of China's population, approximately 310.3 million people, are aged 60 or above. Projections indicate this figure will surpass 30% by 2035, prompting discussions about raising the retirement age.
The strain on social security systems intensifies as more citizens refuse to contribute to the underfunded pension system. Meanwhile, military spending and infrastructure projects continue to receive substantial funding.
The government's attempts to boost birth rates through financial incentives, including housing assistance and cash payments for having up to three children, have shown limited success.
The country's urbanization rate reached 67% in 2024, with 10 million more people relocating to cities. This urban transition occurs against the backdrop of vacant schools and kindergartens being repurposed as elderly care facilities.
China's current sex ratio stands at 104.34 men for every 100 women, though independent assessments suggest the disparity might be larger. This imbalance raises concerns about social stability among the nation's unmarried male population.
The demographic challenges have contributed to India surpassing China as the world's most populous nation in 2023, marking a significant shift in global population dynamics.
China's population crisis presents multifaceted challenges for its economic and social stability. The declining workforce, aging population, and gender imbalance threaten to undermine the nation's economic growth and social security systems. The government faces mounting pressure to address these demographic challenges while maintaining economic development. Despite urbanization progress, the combination of an aging society and declining birth rates suggests China may indeed "grow old before it grows rich."
