There are rarely elections when a third-party candidate truly impacts the race, but that will surely be the case in 2024.
Polling shows that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will hurt Joe Biden more than Donald Trump, especially in some key battleground states, and Kennedy is closer to making that nightmare come true for Joe Biden in North Carolina.
Talking Points…
- Current battleground polling
- Kennedy becoming Biden's nightmare
- Analysis
When it comes to a presidential election, you can pretty much throw out national polling numbers if you are trying to get a feel for who will win the actual election. National polling is great for the popular vote, but the electoral college is what will dictate the outcome of the presidential election, so we have to do deep dives into battleground states that will dictate who wins or loses this election.
In this case, it would be:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Michigan
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Virginia
- Wisconsin
Currently, Trump is leading by 3 points in Arizona, 7 points in Florida, 3 points in Georgia, 2 points in Michigan, 4 points in North Carolina, 11 points in Ohio, 2 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Wisconsin, and Joe Biden is leading by 7 points in Virginia.
All those numbers referenced above are in a two-way race, so Biden will be hitting up the states where he thinks he can start catching up to Trump. The bad news for Joe Biden is that polling has shown that Kennedy impacts Joe Biden more than Trump, so you can add a percentage point or two to most of the polling results we have listed above.
In North Carolina, where Trump won but the race was very tight in 2020, Biden took an extra hit with Kennedy in the race. Trump's lead would increase from four points to nearly seven points, all but eliminating that state from the picture for Joe Biden.
Unfortunately for Joe Biden, Kennedy now has the signatures to get on the ballot, so that outcome is becoming a reality, removing yet another state from contention for Joe Biden. Trump's lead also grows in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with Kennedy on the ballot.
You don't often see a third-party candidate impact a race like this, but Kennedy is a real threat here, polling nationally at about 15% and growing. While he is not on the ballot in every state just yet, he is getting closer to having the signatures to be added to key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.
Kennedy had already hit the threshold for Nevada, but at the time, he did not have a running mate, so it is unclear if he would have to redo the process with his running mate on the petition. Other states required the VP on the ticket for consideration, so Kennedy will start to work on those now that he has Nicole Shanahan committed as his VP.
The Democrat Party had become so concerned about Kennedy that it started a committee to work up its attacks against Kennedy to try to lessen the impact he and the other third-party candidates would have in this race (there could be somewhere between three to five third-party candidates in this race). The DNC also has a team of attorneys surveying how these candidates secure ballot access to ensure everything is up and up.
All things remaining equal, Trump's biggest obstacle at this point is his federal indictments. As I have stated before, his numbers take a significant hit with a conviction, more with a jail sentence, so Trump has to win these cases. If he loses, he needs to have a successful appeal before the election. If Trump can get through these cases, the odds are now very much in his favor of winning the presidential election.
