An ABC News poll that just came out has created quite a stir.
The results were significantly different than we have seen in other polls, with some "experts" calling the new poll an outlier.
Regardless, Trump was ahead 51-42, creating a wave of panic among the media and Democrats.
Bidne's approval rating is still -19, so he is considerably underwater, but he has been since August 2021 while still being able to be tied or ahead of Trump in polling… but not this time.
Biden is underwater all in all the major categories for this poll.
Biden is 37-56 overall, 30-65 on the economy, and 23-62 on immigration, so these numbers are starting to go across party lines now.
A shocking 62% of Democrat voters want the party to nominate someone other than Biden, but the only person running against Biden is RFK, and he has been polling around 20% or so.
Trump is doing better than Biden on this front, but it is not really good news, either.
While 54% of GOP voters still support Trump, 43% want to see another candidate win the primary. Those numbers do not jibe with Trump's national polling numbers, however, where Trump is enjoying more than 60% of the primary support.
Trump took a firm lead in this poll when going up against Biden, now seeing 51% support to Biden's 42%.
If this poll is the new trend, it spells disaster for Democrats, but I would not get excited or upset over a single poll.
As I have regularly stated, we look for trends, and this is the first poll that showed this kind of separation, so I will need to see more before I make any real judgment on this.
This is the first poll where I have seen actual separation in about a month, and that was just one poll.
Prior to that, Trump and Biden were within about three points of each other since July, where both Biden and Trump had polling giving them a five-point cushion.
We have to go back to November to see numbers that were this good for Trump, where he had polling where he was leading by 10% and 13% at one point.
This is pretty big for Trump, but as I noted above, I don't get excited about anything until I see a trend.
To that point, Trump just needs to see a cushion as more polling comes out. As long as he is showing noticeable separation, we would then know that the nation is starting to move in a different direction.
Not to play Debbie Downer here, but even with this poll, in terms of electoral voting, Trump is still behind Biden in state-by-state polling.
The current 270ToWin electoral map has Biden 241 to 235, with 62 electoral votes still up for grabs.
The states not leaning either way right now are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
The good news for Trump is that he was behind by about 70 points on the electoral map in July, so this is another positive trend for him.
We are still a long way away from meaningful polling, however, and both Biden and Trump are now facing legal challenges, so this entire race could be turned on its head within a few months.
