The 2023 election night results would play a key role in how Democrats viewed Joe Biden remaining on the ticket as well as voter excitement on a ticket headed by Joe Biden.
If the election night results are any sign of things to come, they showed that regardless of how bad Joe Biden is doing, abortion is top of mind, and his failures are not sucking the energy out of the voter base as many had suspected it would.
In a presidential election, you must be wary of falling into the trap of only looking at national polls.
This is about the electoral college vote, which means state polls are far more important, and in these polls, Biden is crumbling.
Recent polling in five of six key swing states shows Trump ahead of Biden.
Of Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Biden is only leading in Wisconsin, and it also happens to be the smallest margin.
Biden is holding off Trump 47% to 45%, while Trump leads Biden by at least 4% in the remaining states while having a massive 10% lead in Nevada.
Biden's national approval rating remains below 40%, with the second lowest rating at this point in his presidency, beating only Jimmy Carter's dismal 32% approval rating one year away from the election.
Some Biden supporters, such as Bill Kristol, are delicately asking Biden to step aside. He stated:
President Biden has served our country well. I'm confident he'll do so for the next year.
But it's time for an act of personal sacrifice and public spirit. It's time to pass the torch to the next generation. It's time for Biden to announce he won't run in 2024.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) has decided to run, largely because of how badly Biden is polling. He stated:
I'm saying the quiet part out loud. Biden/Harris isn't viable against Trump.
I could offer no statement more powerful than the one made by suffering Americans in today's NY Times poll. That's why Trump beats Biden 48-44 in the battleground states, while a 'generic' Democrat beats Trump 48-40.
The Biden campaign is not listening or even thinking about entertaining these calls for Biden to step down.
That will especially be the case now that Democrats have again pulled off some major upsets in the 2023 cycle.
Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz stated:
"Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later.
Don't take our word for it: Gallup predicted an 8-point loss for President Obama only for him to win handedly a year later. Or a year out from the 2022 midterms when every major outlet similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden."
It seems clear to me that Biden is the best hope that the GOP has of taking back the White House if Trump is the nominee.
If Trump somehow falters and DeSantis or Haley gets the nod, it would more than likely go from a close race to a complete and utter blowout up and down the ticket.
If there was one thing that the 2020, 2022, and 2023 elections showed us, and this will not be a popular point, it is that GOP voters are not excited about MAGA Republicans endorsed by Trump.
In 2022, we lost key Senate seats in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia to very questionable Democrat candidates who were facing off against hand-picked candidates by Trump. If the GOP won those races, Republicans would have the Senate right now.
In 2023, one of the most important gubernatorial races was in Kentucky, with the hope of ousting a Democrat governor from what has been a red stronghold, but again, a Trump-backed candidate lost the election.
Most of the powers that be in the GOP are all-in on Trump for 2024 as the party's nominee, and the Biden polling numbers are only making them dig in deeper, but they are not paying attention to what happens to Trump's numbers if he is convicted of a felony, something that would cause them to fall off by about 50%.
And if the GOP has a presidential candidate that is no longer drawing voters to the booths, the impact that will have on down-ballot offices will be devastating.
The point is, do not get too comfortable that Biden is crashing in the polls right now. It is a good sign, but this entire race depends on what happens to Trump in the courtroom.
This election will go as the verdicts in those cases go… that will be the deciding factor.