It would appear that the Biden campaign has given up on Joe Biden winning Florida in 2024.
His campaign chair, Jen O'Malley Dillon, is looking for other paths to 270 for Joe Biden.
Talking Points…
- Biden campaign gives up on Florida
- Why did they give up?
- Talking Points
Florida is a big chunk of real estate in terms of electoral votes, and it is always considered to be one of the top prizes in a presidential election. While Republicans have the edge in recent elections, Democrats did win the state in 1996, 2008, and 2012, and in the last three elections they lost, the widest margin of victory was only 3.3%.
With 30 electoral votes at stake in 2024, Florida is the third largest state behind only Texas, which Trump will win, and California, which will go to Biden. If Biden concedes Florida, that means this race is virtually even heading into the "usual" battleground states, making it much more challenging for Biden to win based on recent polling, but when Dillon was asked if Florida is a battleground state, she flat-out answered, "No."
This was a crushing blow to Democrat operatives who are working in the area. For instance, Florida-based communications consultant Kevin Cate stated:
"Not a lot of staffers, consultants or organizers are in a position to say it, but this was such an unnecessary, demoralizing gut punch."
That might be an over-exaggeration, but as far as the campaign goes, Dems know they are in a huge hole and are unlikely to win the state, so they are better off spending their money and time elsewhere. Donald Trump has stretched out his lead in Florida to 9.6%, which is too much to make up in four months, so I get why Dems are looking for different paths for Biden.
The fact of the matter is that Ron DeSantis had a surreal 2022 election season, flipping parts of Florida that nobody thought could be flipped. And to be blunt, without Florida, there really is no path for a Republican candidate. Florida and Texas are Democrats' New York and California. Lose either of them, and you have pretty much lost the election.
The Biden campaign is trying to put on a good face here, countering what Dillon said during that interview by responding:
"Florida is in play for President Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot.
"The President has a strong story to tell on the issues that matter most to Floridians, which is why our campaign continues to scale up our presence and investments into the state."
There are obviously seats in Florida that Democrats will win, but the Biden campaign will spend time only where it believes it can help down-ballot candidates. As far as the state and its electors are concerned, this election is over.
I appreciate Dillon's honesty. She is right to focus efforts on other states because now more than ever, Biden should be focused on the blue wall, where he is not doing very well. And if Biden does not win the blue wall, he cannot get to 270. Trump is back on top in Michigan by 1.8%, he is winning PA by 2.3%, and he has a lead of 0.8% in Wisconsin.
All of those leads are small enough to overcome, but Biden needs at least two of those states to have a chance, so why waste money and time on Florida when he is down nearly double digits? I would also note that Biden's lead in New Jersey is minimal at this point, with a recent poll actually showing Trump ahead by 1.0%, which is terrible news for Biden because last polling had him down by 5% to Biden. Trump clearly absorbed the hit from the guilty conviction and managed to get back on track, and that is not a good sign for the Biden campaign.
