Joe Biden has been creeping back up in polling, which was to be expected once his campaign started aggressively attacking Donald Trump.
That may not last long, however, as Biden just got some awful news about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who just qualified for the Michigan ballot.
Talking Points…
- Latest polling results
- Kennedy hurts Biden on Blue Wall territory
- Analysis
For all intents and purposes, Biden and Trump are now tied in national polls. In most recent national polls, Trump and Biden are separated by no more than three points, with both of them swapping out leads depending on the poll. For instance, Trump has a 3-point lead in the latest Emerson College poll, but Biden has a 3-point lead in the latest Echelon Insights poll.
As I have noted before, however, national polls do not have much credence when you are talking about a presidential election because it is all about the electoral college. For Biden, this race could come down to the Blue Wall and that single electoral vote from Nebraska. The Blue Wall states consist of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where Biden and Trump are very close.
In Pennsylvania, Biden and Trump are virtually tied in all but one recent poll, which appears to be an outlier. The Franklin & Marshall poll had Biden beating Trump by 10 points, but every other poll has them tied or within a few points of each other. It is pretty much the same situation in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump has a very comfortable margin in the other battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Ohio, so Biden will need those Blue Wall states to win this election.
The chances of Joe Biden being able to pull off that Blue Wall win just took a significant hit this week with an election announcement from the Kennedy campaign. Kennedy has now qualified for the ballot in Michigan, with more independent voters siding with Kennedy than Biden. Kennedy qualified with help from the Natural Law Party, which nominated Kennedy to be put on the ballot. Natural Law Party Chairman Doug Dern stated:
"He's the most qualified candidate in the modern-day history of America.
"We welcome Mr. Kennedy and Ms. Shanahan to the party."
This is crushing for Biden, with 5-way polling putting Trump atop all other candidates, pushing his lead against Biden out to three points (37-34). Part of the reason for that is that Kennedy received more support from independent voters than Biden, who is besting him 22-21%, with Trump leading the pack at 33%.
Kennedy is not done here, either, as this campaign is working hard to ensure he is on the ballot in every state. Campaign Press Secretary Stephanie Spear stated:
"We have the field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid circulators, supporters, and strategists ready to get the job done.
"We are exceeding all our benchmarks and will announce new states each week."
Right now, this is just a problem for Joe Biden, as Kennedy takes support away from Biden in key states that Biden would need to win this election. Having said that, depending on how his legal cases play out, this could wind up hurting Donald Trump.
Most polls show that Trump takes about a 30% hit in support if he is convicted of a felony, more if he gets a jail sentence. While I do not believe Trump has to worry about that in the hush-money case, if the January 6 or classified documents cases concluded before the election, Trump could have some problems, which turns Kennedy into a legit contender to win this election as a third-party candidate.
