The 2025 mayoral race is turning into a nail-biter that could shake up City Hall.
With just over a week until the November 4, 2025, election, independent candidate and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo has slashed Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s lead from a comfy 20 points to a mere 10, per a fresh Suffolk University poll, while Republican Curtis Sliwa’s 11% support muddies the waters, as New York Post reports.
This race was once looking like a runaway for Mamdani, who still holds 44% of likely voters’ support in the latest survey conducted over a recent four-day stretch from Thursday to Sunday.
Cuomo, now at 34%, has flipped the script since September, especially among Hispanic voters, where he’s erased a 30-point deficit to run neck-and-neck, and among independents, where he’s swung from an 18-point lag to a 10-point lead.
Their clash at Rockefeller Center on October 16, 2025, showcased the stark contrast between Cuomo’s pragmatic experience and Mamdani’s progressive vision—a divide that’s clearly splitting voter loyalties.
Yet, with 7% still undecided and four other candidates scraping up 2% combined, including names like Eric Adams, Irene Estrada, Joseph Hernandez, and Jim Walden, every vote counts in this crowded field.
Enter Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee sitting at 11%, whose presence might just be the thorn in Cuomo’s side.
Analysts note that Sliwa’s base could be splitting the anti-Mamdani vote, with a striking 32% of voters naming Cuomo as their second choice compared to a measly 3% for Mamdani.
“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
“That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Senator Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire,” Paleologos added. “It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race.”
Let’s unpack that—Sliwa’s supporters are the wildcard, and if they weren’t in play, Cuomo might already be measuring the drapes at Gracie Mansion, which speaks volumes about how fractured the opposition to Mamdani’s progressive agenda really is.
Digging deeper, voter motivations reveal a telling split: 79% of Mamdani’s backers are genuinely “for” him, while Cuomo’s support is evenly divided at 40%-40% between those rooting for him and those simply voting against Mamdani’s policies.
This Suffolk University poll, the first since Mayor Eric Adams dropped his re-election bid and threw his weight behind Cuomo, marks the second survey showing this tightening gap, suggesting the endorsement carries real clout.
With early voting already underway for its third day of a nine-day window leading to November 4, 2025, the momentum could shift yet again as New Yorkers head to the polls.
So, will Cuomo’s experience and strategic alliances outmaneuver Mamdani’s idealistic base, or will Sliwa’s stubborn 11% keep the race tantalizingly out of reach? This contest is a microcosm of the broader battle between practical governance and progressive promises, and New Yorkers are watching every move.
