President Trump declared victory for Republican Steve Hilton in California's gubernatorial primary on Wednesday, congratulating the former Fox News host for "coming in first" while more than 40 percent of ballots remained uncounted and Decision Desk HQ had yet to call the race.
Hilton held 27.76 percent of the vote as of Wednesday afternoon, with just 56.76 percent of ballots tabulated. Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer trailed at 25.36 percent and 19.59 percent, respectively. Under California's open primary system, the top two finishers advance to the November general election regardless of party, and the margin between Hilton and Becerra sat at barely two points with millions of votes still outstanding.
None of that stopped the president from weighing in early. The Hill reported that Trump posted on Truth Social:
"Congratulations to Steve Hilton on coming in first, last night, in the California Vote for Governor. If Californians are smart, which I know they are, they will put Steve into the Governor's Mansion, and watch their State get better at a rate that has probably never been seen before."
Trump added that he knows Hilton personally, calling him "a hard driving WINNER" who "will turn California around, quickly," and pledging that "the Federal Government will be there, with him, to help!"
Decision Desk HQ's Geoffrey Skelley wrote Wednesday that California is expected to tabulate more than 3 million additional votes, a process that could stretch days or even weeks. Skelley also warned that the remaining ballots may shift the standings.
"Because many registered Democrats waited until the last minute to vote due to the volatile gubernatorial race, we expect the remaining votes to be somewhat more Democratic-leaning. That could enable Becerra to pass Hilton and perhaps allow Steyer to also catch the leading Republican."
That assessment introduces a real possibility that Hilton could slip from first place, or even out of the top two entirely, as late-arriving mail ballots are processed. California's slow vote-counting apparatus has drawn criticism for years, and this race is shaping up as another test of patience for voters and candidates alike.
Three other candidates already exited the field. Former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan all conceded on election night after finishing in the single digits.
Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron who later became a Fox News host, expressed confidence Wednesday that he would advance to the general election. He posted a video on X with a simple message:
"Stay tuned. Good things are coming. We are still leading. It's looking good."
Later in the day, Hilton thanked the president publicly. "Thank you, President Trump," he wrote. "I am fighting for each and every Californian, to restore the California Dream. Change is coming."
The dynamic between Trump's endorsement and primary outcomes has drawn attention across the country. In Iowa, a MAHA-backed farmer recently upset a Trump-endorsed candidate in the GOP governor's race, showing that presidential backing does not always guarantee results at the ballot box.
California, however, presents a different calculus. A Republican winning the governorship would mark a seismic shift in a state that hasn't elected one since Arnold Schwarzenegger. Trump's willingness to plant his flag early, before the count is anywhere near complete, signals that the White House views Hilton's candidacy as a priority, not a long shot.
The math tells part of the story. With the Democratic vote split among multiple candidates, Hilton's 27.76 percent was enough to lead the field even in deep-blue California. Becerra and Steyer divided a larger pool of Democratic voters between them, while Porter, Villaraigosa, and Mahan carved off additional slivers before dropping out.
That fragmentation gave Hilton a narrow opening. Whether it holds depends entirely on those 3 million-plus outstanding ballots.
Trump has shown a pattern of using early declarations and public backing to build momentum for his preferred candidates. His recent move to turn the America 250 celebration into a rally-style event reflected the same instinct, seize the narrative before anyone else can frame it.
The president's approach to political endorsements has always been assertive. He backed candidates in 2024 with similar confidence, and figures across the Republican spectrum responded. Even former Vice President Mike Pence, who had declined to endorse Trump in the 2024 election, ultimately congratulated him after the results were clear, a reminder that Trump's political gravity tends to pull even reluctant allies into his orbit.
The immediate question is straightforward: Will Hilton hold his lead as California finishes counting? Skelley's analysis suggests the remaining ballots lean Democratic, which could tighten or even erase Hilton's advantage over Becerra. If both Democrats overtake him, the November general election would feature no Republican at all.
Hilton's path to Sacramento was always going to be difficult. California's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and the state hasn't been competitive at the gubernatorial level for the GOP in well over a decade. But the fractured Democratic primary created an unusual opportunity, one that Trump clearly wants to exploit.
The president's willingness to act decisively and publicly is by now a well-established feature of his leadership style. Whether the subject is foreign policy or a state primary, Trump tends to move first and let the facts catch up.
In this case, the facts are still being counted, literally. More than 3 million ballots remain untabulated. Decision Desk HQ has not called the race. And Skelley's projection that late ballots will skew Democratic introduces genuine uncertainty about whether Hilton finishes first, second, or third.
Trump's endorsement also raises the stakes for Hilton in a general election. If the Republican does advance, he will carry the president's imprimatur into a contest in a state where Trump's approval ratings have historically been underwater. That endorsement could energize Republican turnout in a way California hasn't seen in years, or it could galvanize Democratic voters who might otherwise stay home.
For now, Hilton holds a narrow lead with a long count ahead. His campaign's tone, confident but careful, suggests his team understands the math. Trump's tone, characteristically, suggests no such caution.
The president's approach to political confrontations in hostile territory has always been to push forward rather than hedge. California's governor's race will test whether that instinct pays off, or whether the remaining ballots tell a different story.
Win or lose, the fact that a Republican led the California governor's race on election night, even temporarily, marks a shift worth watching. Democrats poured resources into a crowded primary, split their vote, and may have handed a GOP candidate the top spot in the initial count of the bluest major state in the country.
If Hilton holds on, California becomes a genuine battleground for the first time in a generation. If he doesn't, the episode still reveals something about the state of Democratic politics: a party so fractured in its own stronghold that a Republican backed by the president could lead the field, even briefly, with barely more than a quarter of the vote.
California will finish counting when it finishes counting. In the meantime, Trump has already made his bet. The question is whether the ballots agree.
