New York City stands at a crossroads as a historic mayoral election looms, with the potential to crown its first socialist leader in a race tighter than a Manhattan parking spot.
On the eve of the Tuesday, November 4, 2025, election, a last-minute AtlasIntel poll dropped a bombshell, revealing Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani clinging to a razor-thin 4-point lead over independent Andrew Cuomo, while GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa lags behind, as a record-breaking 2 million voters are expected to cast their ballots, as New York Post reports.
Early voting, which wrapped up on Saturday, November 1, 2025, saw over 730,000 New Yorkers hit the polls during a 9-day window, a sign of the intense interest in this three-way showdown.
During those final days of early voting, Gen Z and Millennials turned out in droves, outnumbering older voters and potentially giving Mamdani a boost, since he previously secured their backing in the June 2025 Democratic primary.
Yet, Election Day is expected to draw more seasoned voters, and if turnout surpasses the projected 2 million mark, it could tilt the scales toward Cuomo, whose appeal among moderates might just sneak him past the finish line.
Looking at the early voting breakdown, Democrats dominate with over 73% of the votes, while Republicans hover at 11% and independents make up just under 15%, suggesting Mamdani’s base is energized—but is it enough?
The AtlasIntel poll, conducted between October 31 and November 2, 2025, with 2,400 voters, pegs Mamdani at 43.9%, Cuomo at 39.4%, and Sliwa at a slipping 15.5%, down from 24% in a prior survey—hardly a ringing endorsement for the GOP hopeful.
In a head-to-head scenario, though, the same poll flips the script, showing Cuomo trouncing Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%, a stat that should have progressive activists sweating through their fair-trade hoodies.
Past polls have shown Mamdani ahead by anywhere from 25 to 6 points, though a Marist Institute survey from less than a week before November 3, 2025, gave him a more comfortable 16-point edge—yet the latest numbers hint at a dramatic closing gap.
Adding fuel to this already fiery contest, President Trump threw his weight behind Cuomo on the evening of November 3, 2025, via Truth Social, while earlier comments on “60 Minutes” labeled Cuomo a lesser evil compared to a certain “communist” contender.
“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job,” Trump posted on Truth Social, a statement that’s less a glowing review and more a pragmatic jab at Mamdani’s far-left platform.
Cuomo, ever the political survivor, quickly distanced himself from Trump, pointing out the president’s lack of popularity in NYC—a smart move in a city that often sees red at the mere mention of certain conservative figures.
On the campaign trail, all three candidates—Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa—crisscrossed the city on November 3, 2025, from the Brooklyn Bridge to Staten Island, making their final pleas to a electorate that could make history with a turnout not seen since 1969, when 2.5 million voted for John Lindsay.
Mamdani, despite his lead, isn’t without baggage; the AtlasIntel poll shows 44% view him negatively against 50% positively, and Cuomo-supporting super PACs have hammered him with attacks in the campaign’s closing days—dirty politics or just hardball?
“As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents. That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats,” said Stephen Graves, analyst with Gotham Polling, a point that underscores how a surge in undecideds could spoil Mamdani’s socialist dreams in favor of Cuomo’s centrist pragmatism.
