The 2024 election report from Catalist reveals notable shifts in voting patterns, with a widened gender gap as men, especially the youth, gravitated toward conservative choices.
Talking Points Memo reported that Kamala Harris faced distinct electoral challenges, maintaining robust support among women while witnessing shifts among men and young voters.
Catalist's analysis, which used voter files, census documents, election results, and modeling, highlights a crucial trend of men leaning right in 2024. The gender divide in partisan preferences widened significantly, marking a pivotal shift for the Democratic Party. As young men increasingly supported Republicans, traditional Democratic strongholds experienced a notable shakeup.
Vice President Kamala Harris kept strong support among women at 55%, matching Biden’s 2020 numbers. But male support dropped from 48% to 42%, with young men driving a shift to the right. The gender gap among Black voters hit a record 11 points—90% of Black women backed Harris, while support from Black men fell to 79%, reflecting broader demographic trends.
The shift was not confined to young Black men. Latino voters also experienced a divergence, with Harris performing 13 points better among Latinas compared to Latinos, the latter's support dipping below the 50% mark for the first time. This marked a significant milestone for Democratic campaigns in these communities.
Among Gen Z and Millennials, the gender gap in the 2024 election was the largest observed. These young voters, who had previously shown strong Democratic tendencies, demonstrated increased willingness to consider Republican options. This trend signaled potential shifts in future elections as younger demographics reshape political landscapes.
Harris did achieve increased support from "super voters," older individuals who consistently participated in major elections. These voters have exhibited a gradual move toward Democrat preferences, a trend solidified over the Trump administration and continued under Harris. Yet, despite this gain, challenges arose with new and infrequent voters.
The disconnect with less engaged voters contributed to Harris's hurdles, as maintaining a wide base proved difficult amidst evolving political dynamics. The gender gap, particularly with young men of color, was a key factor in this electoral challenge.
“In the Trump era, the gender gap substantially grew, driven by much larger support drops among Black men. In 2016, the gap expanded to 6 points, driven by a 5-point drop among men. Similarly, in 2024, the gap was an unprecedented 11 points — while Black women’s support was still 90%, Black men fell to 79%.”
The gender gap among white voters also hit record highs, reaching a 12-point difference. This widening divide indicated broader changes in demographic behaviors, reflecting deeper partisan shifts nationally.
According to the Catalist report, even as "super voters" trended Democrat, their contributions alone were insufficient to counterbalance the broader shifts among younger demographics. As political landscapes continue to evolve, the balance between engaging reliable voting blocks and attracting new constituencies remains pivotal.
Overall, while Harris maintained stability among women and highly engaged Democratic participants, the transformation among young voters, men, and diverse communities challenged traditional Democratic fortes. These shifts suggest evolving dynamics as voters reassess their political allegiances and priorities.
The traditional Democratic base saw fragmentation as voters across gender and age lines reevaluated their options. As political analysts digest these findings, engaging and retaining this diverse coalition will be vital for future electoral success.
This report underscores critical aspects of the 2024 elections, illustrating how demographic changes influence political outcomes. The path ahead involves addressing these gender and generational shifts to maintain electoral viability.
