A dramatic shift in Republican voting patterns emerges as Donald Trump reverses his stance on early voting ahead of the November 5 presidential election against Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to USA TODAY, Republicans have significantly narrowed the early voting gap with Democrats compared to 2020, cutting the Democratic advantage from 14 percentage points to just 7 points.
The shift follows Trump's campaign actively encouraging supporters to embrace early voting and mail-in ballots, marking a stark departure from his previous criticism of these voting methods.
Current data from the University of Florida Election Lab shows nearly 30 million Americans have already cast their ballots through early voting or mail-in options. In states with party registration, Democrats account for 42% of votes cast, while Republicans represent 35%, and unaffiliated voters make up 23%.
Pennsylvania's mail-in voting statistics reveal Democrats comprising 61% of the 1.2 million ballots cast, down from 72% at the same point in 2020. Republicans have increased their share to 29%, up from 19% four years ago. Similarly, North Carolina has witnessed a substantial Republican surge, with the GOP now claiming 34% of early votes compared to Democrats' 35%.
Nevada and Arizona demonstrate even more dramatic shifts, with Republicans now leading early voting in both states. In Nevada, Republicans account for 40% of ballots compared to Democrats' 37%, while Arizona shows Republicans at 42% versus Democrats' 36%.
Michael McDonald, who oversees the Election Lab at the University of Florida, explains the significance of these changes. He notes that Trump's endorsement of early voting has fundamentally altered Republican voting behavior.
During a recent rally in Duluth, Georgia, Trump highlighted the record-setting early-vote numbers. Campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated:
We are far outperforming in our share of the early vote relative to two or four years ago across all battleground states, and we are well-positioned for victory on November 5.
The Harris campaign maintains these changes primarily reflect a redistribution of existing Trump supporters rather than new voter enthusiasm. Lauren Hitt, Harris campaign spokeswoman, emphasizes that many early Republican voters were previously Election Day voters in 2020.
A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll indicates Harris leads among those who have already voted, with 63% support compared to Trump's 34%. However, likely, Election Day voters prefer Trump by 52% to 35%.
Election experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions from early voting patterns. Several factors, including state-specific registration laws and demographic voting traditions, could influence final outcomes. Additionally, organized get-out-the-vote efforts among key Democratic constituencies haven't fully materialized in some battleground states.
The transformed early voting landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for both campaigns. While Republicans celebrate their improved early voting performance, questions remain about Election Day turnout impacts. The reduction in their traditional Election Day advantage could offset gains made in early voting.
The final impact of these shifting voting patterns remains uncertain as campaigns enter the crucial final days before the election. With millions of votes yet to be cast, both parties continue their push to mobilize supporters through various voting methods, setting the stage for what could be another closely contested presidential election.
