As the U.S. presidential race heats up, betting sites now favor Donald Trump over his Democratic challenger Kamala Harris.
Following a significant debate and shifts within the Democratic Party, Donald Trump is now more likely to win re-election against Kamala Harris, according to bettors, Newsweek reported.
The occurrence of the debate on June 28 marked a pivotal moment in the election cycle, with Joe Biden showing weaknesses that later led to his withdrawal from the race. This unexpected event boosted the odds for Donald Trump, tipping the scales significantly in his favor on betting platforms.
Originally, Kamala Harris, who became the Democratic nominee after Joe Biden endorsed her following his withdrawal, had a slender lead over Trump. But her advantage eroded as the month progressed. Trump’s potential return to the White House is now priced at a 64.3% probability on Polymarket, a significant shift from earlier odds.
Kamala Harris, despite early leads, currently trails with odds placed at 35.7% on the same platform, described as "the world’s largest prediction market." Such forecasting is crucial, as the betting markets have often been early indicators of electoral outcomes.
In the arena of swing states, the forecast appears grim for Harris. Trump is leading in seven critical states, including Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—most of which Joe Biden had won in the 2020 elections, except for North Carolina.
While Harris might be edging out Trump in terms of national voting intentions according to a recent poll by FiveThirtyEight, the complexities of the Electoral College system still favor Trump. Notably, in 2020, Trump lost the popular vote but held close competitively in the Electoral College.
Current trends in early voting show a strong lead for Harris, which is consistent with the generally higher early voter turnout among Democrats. However, this does not necessarily translate to final victory, especially in a closely contested race where swing states play a critical role.
An analysis by FiveThirtyEight, dated October 14, suggested a slight 2.4-point lead for Harris in popular vote projections. Nonetheless, Trump's support in key battleground states could potentially offset this advantage.
Following his participation in a town hall in Lancaster, Pennsylvania on October 20, Donald Trump reiterated his controversial stance on the electoral process. Trump has consistently claimed, without substantive proof from authorities, that "mail-in ballots lead to electoral fraud." rationale.
As the candidates enter the final stretch of their campaigns, the dynamics could still shift, reflecting late swings in voter sentiment. For Harris, sustaining momentum and converting early leads into electoral votes remains her biggest challenge.
In conclusion, betting markets and polls currently favor Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, signaling a possible second term. Trump's surprising lead in pivotal states and the prevailing opinion that this metric plays a decisive role in the Electoral College adds to the existing suspense of election night. Despite leading in early voting and national polls, Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle, one that will be determined by key states rather than popular sentiment.
With the recent turn of events and changes in betting odds, the forthcoming presidential race not only tests the candidates but also the predictability and reliability of early electoral forecasts. As evidenced in previous elections, surprises can be anticipated, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of U.S. presidential races.
