Currently, Donald Trump is losing to Harris nationally as well as in the average of most battleground state polls, but he is well within the margin of error.
CNN's data guru believes that if the same mistake repeats itself, as we have seen in the past, it could mean a landslide win for Trump.
Talking Points…
- Current polling
- CNN data guru believes it could be a landslide
- Analysis
Harris remains steady in national polling, floating between 2.5 and 3%. She is currently at 2.5%, which is not good news for Democrats. Those numbers have also held true in the most recent surveys except for one, the ActiVote survey, which has Trump ahead by 2%. However, that would appear to be an outlier because the other four polls taken during the same time period show Harris with a small lead.
But, as we all know, this race will likely come down to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Donald Trump currently holds a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris has a small lead in Nevada.
I am starting to get worried about the Blue Wall states because Harris seems to be extending her lead. She is now three points up in Michigan, about even in Pennsylvania, and continues to lead Trump by about two points in Wisconsin. If Trump wants to win this election, he has to win at least one of those states to block Harris.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten recently broke down the polling, and he agrees that the race is too close to call right now. However, he is pointing to a polling error we have seen previously where Trump underperforms in polling compared to the actual election results. He stated:
"What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia."
Now, I don't want anyone to get cocky because of that statement because this race will come down to the wire. Enten stressed that again, stating:
"So, the bottom line is, the state polling averages tell us- what it tells us is it's just a race that is too close to call. Maybe one candidate has an advantage over the other one. But the bottom line is, it is way too close to call and it will remain so."
Just to back that up, he pointed to who polls showed a dominant Republican cycle in 2022, but the Dems had a far better than expected showing. Enten stated:
"What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022?
"Well, in that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because she retakes those Great Lake battleground states, carries North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona."
Trump has been hammering Pennsylvania, and right now, I really like his chances to take the state. While I think Wisconsin is still winnable, Harris continues to perform strongly in that state for some reason. Michigan has been all over the place, but Trump has not spent much time there recently, and I would like to see that change. From what I can tell, Trump sees PA as the key to this race, which is why he has been spending so much time there.
