Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) had to fight for his political life in 2018, winning a very close race against Beto O'Rourke.
Cruz now finds himself in a similar battle against Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX).
Talking Points…
- Current polling
- Cruz battling for his political life
- Analysis
Throughout this election cycle, Ted Cruz has enjoyed a fairly comfortable margin. Before Allred was the Democrat nominee, Cruz was dominating the race by double digits, but that margin has since tightened. In July, Cruz held an 8-point lead in an ActiVote poll. In late August, that lead shrank to two points in a Public Policy Polling survey.
By late August, however, Cruz's lead started to push back out, leading various polls by 10, 4, 6, and 5 points. However, the latest Morning Consult poll has Cruz nervous again, showing Allred ahead for the first time in this race. That, however, was quickly followed by a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation survey that showed Cruz ahead by three points.
The worrisome aspect of this for Cruz is that he was ahead by five points in the previous Morning Consult poll, so even if Allred is not really winning, he has the momentum in this race. As someone who lives in Texas, I can tell you that the first time I saw a Cruz ad was this week, but Allred has been all over the place, which is likely why Cruz is losing ground to him.
How Allred is anywhere close in this race is just proof that Texas has been infiltrated by liberals who are running from liberal policies but are now trying to turn Texas into another blue state. That exact point was made by Jimmy Keady, the founder, and president of JLK Political Strategies, who stated:
"Texas is an interesting political environment and will become a bellwether within the next decade.
"With the recent influx of West Coasters, and a fast-growing Hispanic population, recent elections in Texas are closer than Republicans want."
Keady, however, also offered up his analysis of the upcoming election, stating:
"Texas will stay red this November and Ted Cruz will win re-election. But Republicans should not take the threat of losing this state lightly.
"As the Republican Party makes a play for blue states, Democrats are going to start making a play for red states… to hold these seats, Republicans will have to stay disciplined on messaging and prioritize candidate recruitment."
Republicans have always taken for granted that the state would be a red state, but that shift is clearly happening. There has been a huge influx of transients from blue states that seemingly forget why they fled their blue states in the first place.
Younger voters are also becoming more active, and with the number of schools in Texas, there are a lot more Democrat voters heading to the polls than the state usually sees. If you read my reports regularly, you know I have been begging the GOP to diversify the party on all fronts… more women, more minorities, and more students. This also raises concerns if Trump wins the election and raids the Senate. For instance, if Trump recruits Cruz to serve in his administration, we would then have to have a special election. If Cruz is struggling, what happens when an unknown runs for this office? It is definitely something to consider.
It is time for the party to start actively recruiting voters rather than waiting for them to get older and have some common sense kick in. I don't see Cruz losing this election, but it is far too close for my comfort. Having said that, if Republicans don't make changes soon, it is only a matter of time before Democrats steal a Senate seat and possibly the electoral vote. And if the Democrats can turn Texas blue in a general election, Republicans will never see the White House again. There is literally no path to victory for any Republican candidate that does not include Texas.
