It’s official… the 2024 election will be Donald Trump’s last hurrah.
Trump says that if he does lose this election, it is unlikely that he will run again in 2028.
Talking Points…
- Trump says he is unlikely to run again
- Current polling situation
- Analysis
Had Joe Biden remained in the race, I have zero doubt that Trump would have won this election. Democrats also saw that, so they pressured Biden to drop out and gifted the nomination to Harris. The moment Harris entered the race, the polls flipped, making Trump a true underdog for the first time. Trump was asked if he would run again in 2028 if he loses. He responded:
“No, I don’t. I think … that will be it. I don’t see that at all.
“Hopefully, we’re gonna be successful.”
For Trump to run, he would have to overcome his age (he would be 82 during the election season in 2028), as well having to defend his legal problems and having lost twice already. How Trump impacts the down-ballot races would also be used against him. The 2020 and 2022 elections was a disaster for Republicans, and it is a safe assumption that if Trump loses in 2024, Republicans will struggle in the House and Senate.
That would be almost certainly true for Trump’s key endorsements, many of which are already struggling in this election. For instance, Mark Robinson, the GOP candidate in the North Carolina gubernatorial election, is sinking quickly after a massive scandal broke, with many of his campaign staffers resigning. Kari Lake is trailing again in the Senate race in Arizona, a seat the GOP badly needs if it wants to flip the Senate.
And if Trump loses this race, there is also the question of what to do with MAGA diehards. They have all been tagged as extremists by the media and Democrats, and this just does not work in battleground states, as we have seen in PA and Arizona already. The problem, however, is that all of GOP leadership right now are MAGA people directly picked by Donald Trump.
Donald Trump has been trailing Kamala Harris nationally and in battleground states but is trending in the right direction. He is still down by 2.6% in the national polling average, but that is better than it has been. While it did look like Trump would win the popular vote against Biden, this late in the cycle, I don’t see Trump making up enough ground to win that, which means that even if he does win the electoral vote, Dems are going to be attacking the Electoral College again.
In terms of the battleground, Trump is now ahead in the average of polls in Arizona by 1.3%. However, in the most recent polls, Trump has jumped out to a rather large lead. He had just taken a one-point lead in the Emerson College poll that closed out on the 18th, but in the New York Times poll that closed out on the 21st, Trump was holding a five-point lead against Harris. Trump has also surged in Georgia, now leading the average by 1.4% and the latest New York Times poll by 3%.
Harris is holding steady in Michigan, currently up 2.5% in the averages of national polls. Trump tightened race up in the most recent survey, only trailing Harris by one point, but in the two surveys before that, Trump was down by five and eight points, so I would not count on Michigan at this point. In Nevada, Harris has a negligible lead. She had jumped out to a four-point lead in a recent Morning Consult poll, but that looks to be an outlier, with the most recent Emerson College poll showing them at dead even, which is how the previous four polls looked.
Harris now leads Trump by 1.3% in Pennsylvania, which is reflective of all but one recent poll. This state is still probably a coin flip. That brings us to Wisconsin, where Harris’ lead is now down to 1.9% and falling. This state has been back and forth, but the latest Emerson College poll gives Trump a one-point edge, so we have another coin flip here.
I still think we have about another week or so of these polls leveling off, then Trump will have much better idea of where he needs to spend the most time to win this race. Again, from my perspective, Trump has to block Harris in PA, MI, and WI, winning two of three states, to ensure victory. If Harris wins all three of the states, I see no way that Trump can block her from winning the 270 needed to secure the White House for Democrats.
