President Biden has reportedly approved changes to the United States' nuclear deterrence posture, addressing growing concerns over aggression from nations like China, Russia, and North Korea.
According to a Fox News report, the decision was made in secret this March, marking a significant shift in the country's approach to nuclear strategy.
The White House, however, has downplayed the significance of these changes, describing them as routine updates rather than a response to any specific threat. Sean Savett, a White House spokesperson, stated that the guidance issued earlier this year is not directed at any single entity or country, emphasizing that it's a standard practice for administrations to review and update nuclear policies.
Like its predecessors, the Biden administration has conducted a Nuclear Posture Review and issued Nuclear Weapons Employment Planning Guidance. While the specific details of this guidance remain classified, according to Savett, its existence is not a secret.
The Department of Defense released a comprehensive strategy document in 2022 that outlined an integrated approach to U.S. security threats. This document notably listed China as the primary focus, followed by Russia, indicating a shift in priorities that aligns with recent reports of changes in nuclear strategy.
Despite the White House's attempts to frame these updates as routine, questions have arisen regarding the extent and nature of the changes, particularly in light of China's rapidly expanding nuclear capabilities.
Recent assessments have revealed that China's nuclear arsenal is growing at a pace faster than previously anticipated. The Pentagon confirmed last year that Beijing possessed approximately 400 nuclear warheads, a figure it was not expected to reach until the end of this decade.
The Arms Control Association (ACA) now projects that China could more than triple its nuclear stockpile by 2035, a development that has undoubtedly influenced U.S. strategic thinking.
White House spokesperson Sean Savett addressed these concerns, stating:
We have repeatedly voiced concerns about the advancing nuclear arsenals of Russia, PRC [the People's Republic of China], and the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea]. As we have always done, we review our policies and update when necessary to account for emerging geopolitical conditions. We will continue to focus our efforts on reducing nuclear risk by enhancing deterrence and our preference for resolving differences through arms control diplomacy.
While China's nuclear expansion is a growing concern, it's important to note that the United States and Russia still possess significantly larger nuclear arsenals. According to the ACA, these two nations account for 90% of the world's nuclear stockpiles, each holding more than 11 times the number of nuclear warheads compared to China.
The Biden administration's approach appears to be a balancing act, addressing emerging threats while maintaining a commitment to arms control and diplomacy. The classified nature of the recent guidance has led to speculation about its contents, but Congress is expected to receive an unclassified version of the document before President Biden leaves office next year.
China has responded to the reports of the U.S. strategy shift with concern. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that Beijing has no intention of engaging in any form of arms race with other countries. Mao also criticized the U.S. strategy of deterrence, accusing Washington of shirking its commitment to disarmament.
In conclusion, the reported changes to the U.S. nuclear deterrence posture reflect the complex and evolving nature of global security threats. While the White House maintains that these updates are routine, they come at a time of increased tensions with China, ongoing concerns about Russia, and persistent challenges from North Korea. The full implications of these changes may only become clear as more information becomes available and as the global security landscape continues to evolve.
