Polling has been all over the place since Biden dropped out and Harris took over.
One significant swing that we have seen has been the Jewish vote in New York, which has swung dramatically in favor of Donald Trump.
Talking Points…
- Trump making headway in New York
- Overall polling with Harris in the race
- Analysis
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump lost the race by more than 23%. He got crushed, and that is being nice. Since Biden has been in the White House, that has changed rather dramatically. In fact, Biden’s lead in New York was flirting with single digits before he dropped out of the race. With Kamala Harris leading the ticket, the numbers have dramatically changed.
In June, Trump was down a mere eight points to Biden in New York and was making a massive surge. The latest Sienna College Poll that closed out on August 1 with Harris at the top of the ticket shows Harris getting a small bump, leading Trump by 12 points.
What is interesting, however, is that among likely Jewish voters, Trump is now leading Harris 50-49%. It is only a one-point lead, but Democrats have dominated this demographic in past elections.
If we go back to June, Biden was ahead 52-46%. So, we have to think that Harris's move to snub Jewish Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro will not play well with voters. Once the next survey comes out, I would expect that number to move more in favor of Trump, possibly even getting the overall number down to single digits again, putting New York in play.
In order for Harris to have a path to victory, she has to sweep the Blue Wall. This is the primary reason that Democrats forced Joe Biden to step down in the race. Biden trailed Trump significantly in every key Blue Wall state, including PA, MI, and WI. Those numbers have flipped with Biden out and Harris in, and the GOP better figure this out soon because Harris will get another significant bump during the DNC.
Trump is now leading Harris in Arizona (+1.3), Georgia (+0.9), Ohio (+10.0), and Virginia (+4.0). The two candidates are now tied in Nevada, with a considerable number of undecided voters. Arizona and Georgia are both worrisome because Trump’s lead has shrunk considerably, and the lead is well within the margin of error, so these states are actually coin flips.
Harris is now leading Trump in Michigan (+1.6), Pennsylvania (+0.7), and Wisconsin (+1.4). There have been no new polls for South Carolina or New Jersey since Harris entered the race, but Trump was ahead in both of those states against Biden. While Harris’ lead in these Blue Wall states is still within the margin of error, the trend here worries me because these are significant swings from where Trump stood with Biden.
When the last round of national polling came out, Trump’s lead over Biden was erased, with Harris now leading Trump by two points, which sent Trump off. He blistered the polling, but rest assured, it is accurate to this point, and his whining about it will only hurt his case. The GOP and the Trump campaign have to bombard the media with her record and agenda to right this ship, or Trump is going to find himself significantly behind the eight ball come election day.
As noted above, Harris will get one more bump from the convention before things level off, so we will realistically have a much better feel for how this race stands by mid-September, but that is far too long for Trump to wait to attack. Also remember, Trump will have negative press from his election interference case and sentencing the Bragg case, so he has some obstacles to overcome yet.
This has to be a gut shot for Trump because he knew he had this election won, and now he is behind, a coin flip at best. It is not helping the situation that what Democrats did in replacing Biden should be illegal. Having said that, he cannot afford to whine about it… he has to go into attack mode, and like it or not, he may now need to agree to Harris’ terms for a debate because he needs to face off against her directly. As I noted in a previous report, I would like to see two debates, with Trump agreeing to the ABC News debate if Harris agrees to the Fox News debate. That would be fair, but we know Democrats are not interested in fair.
