As we head into debate night, Donald Trump has been given two rather significant pieces of news that are going to put even more pressure on Joe Biden tonight.
A new poll gives Trump a big edge in Nevada, a state that has not been won by a Republican since 2004, as well as one of the best in the business at reading polls giving Trump an edge to win the electoral vote.
Talking Points…
- Trump in Nevada
- Polling guru gives Trump the nod
- Analysis
When Donald Trump won in 2016, he pretty much had a clean sweep of battleground states. One of the exceptions was Nevada, where he lost to Hillary, 47.9% to 45.5%. He lost the state again in 2020, 50.1% to 47.7%. Polling had held steady for Trump heading into 2024, and if election day looks like current polling, Trump will be the first Republican to take the state since 2004.
The latest AARP poll, which was published on Tuesday, showed Trump leading Biden 48% to 45%. Once Kennedy is added to the election, Trump’s lead extends to seven points, which is why Democrats have already filed a lawsuit in the state to challenge the eligibility of Kennedy.
Trump’s biggest cushion in terms of demographics is voters over 50, and there are quite a few of them in Nevada. Trump is beating Biden in that demographic by 12 points, at 53% to 41%. Biden does have a lead with Hispanic voters in the state, however, holding a 10-point lead on Trump in that demographic.
Nate Silver is touted as one of the best when it comes to breaking down polls and giving voters a true idea of who will win an election. If the election were to happen today, Silver believes that Trump would narrowly lose the popular vote but have a significant electoral win, taking the election.
His election forecast model gives Trump the nod in 65.7% of the model’s simulations, and he ran over 40,000 of them. Silver stated:
"The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).
"…If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied.”
Silver goes on to say that even though Biden is not that far behind Trump, this race “isn’t a toss-up.” He continued:
“That's at best a white lie — a convenient fiction that allows everyone to shirk accountability for their forecasts and their decisions."
Silver formally worked for FiveThirtyEight, a site I lean on heavily for polling data. Even though he is clearly a liberal, I have found his breakdowns to be extremely accurate and unbiased, having predicted just about every state in the Obama-Romney election, saying he liked Hillary, but could see Trump winning in 2016, and predicting the win by Biden in 2020.
As I have stated in previous reports, Trump's numbers definitely took a hit after the guilty verdict, but I view that as a temporary setback because I believe the verdict will be overturned. Trump has plenty of time to regain some of those numbers, and I believe he will do that. Having said that, tonight’s debate is a must-win for both candidates.
For Biden, he wants to continue the momentum he has had over the last couple of weeks, enabling him to cut into Trump’s lead and surpass Trump in national polling. For Trump, this is all about getting Biden angry and off his mark early, then just obliterating him and exposing Biden as a liar, fraud, and completely unfit for office. Rumors are that Biden plans on using one-liners to get under Trump’s skin, so I hope he keeps his cool and volleys the digs right back at Biden. I give the advantage to Trump tonight.
