Joe Biden has had a nice little surge after the Trump conviction, but it was still not enough to pass Trump in key battleground state races.
Word on the street now is that Barack Obama is starting to sweat, so he is beginning to interject himself more and more into the Biden campaign.
Talking Points…
- Biden still behind in polling
- Obama stepping in
- Analysis
Joe Biden made a considerable surge in national polling after the Trump verdict was handed down. For the first time in forever, Biden leapfrogged Trump, mainly on the strength of the undecided independent voters waiting for that verdict. Biden had a 14-point swing in that demographic, which resulted in Biden taking a 0.1% lead over Trump in the national average. However, this election is not won with a popular national vote, so the battleground states are what we need to look at.
In Georgia, Trump still leads Joe Biden 43.8% to 38.9%. Trump’s most significant lead in the state was just over 7% back in April, so while he is trending in the wrong direction, he still has a comfortable lead. Trump’s 5.1% lead in Michigan is gone, with Biden now leading Trump 42.0% to 41.8%. This is a key state for both candidates because Biden really has no path to 270 if he cannot win the Blue Wall.
Trump has pulled within five points of Joe Biden in New Jersey. Trump is leading Joe Biden 42.7 to 42.0% in Pennsylvania, which is huge. Trump’s most significant lead in the state was around 4%, but that was months ago. If Trump wins either of these states, it will almost become impossible for Biden to win. If Trump takes them both, it is game over.
Trump will win Ohio, so there is no need to break that down. That leaves us with Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Trump is leading in Arizona and Nevada, Biden is leading in Virginia, and they are now tied in Wisconsin. Trump basically needs to split those four states with what he already appears to have in the bag. If he can win three of them, Biden has absolutely no path to 270 in this election.
As you can see, even though Biden made up significant ground, he is still in bad shape, which is why this debate is so important. This has also apparently caught the attention of Barack Obama, who has gone from the shadows to the forefront of the Biden campaign.
Reports have surfaced that Obama is now regularly in touch with Biden’s top campaign officials, including O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign chair, and Anita Dunn, a Biden aide who worked with Obama. The report goes on to state:
“Obama has always acknowledged to friends and worried supporters in search of reassurance that the race is likely to be a nail-biter.
“Yet he has remained careful about not evincing any specific concern or complacency about the campaign, aware that reports about his feelings are unlikely to help the Democratic cause.”
The expectation now is that we are going to be getting a steady dose of Obama as a top surrogate for Biden, and the campaign will start to focus more on issues it believes will drive voters to the polls rather than continuing to use Bidenomics as its base. We have already seen that in a big swing toward abortion by Democrats.
My impression of the early stages of the Biden campaign is that Joe wanted this to be about him and his so-called achievements; only the American people were not buying into Bidenomics. Say what you want about Obama, but the man is a masterful speaker. He knows how to tap into what is driving voters at any given moment, which is why he ran two very successful campaigns. I believe that is also why we are seeing a significant directional change in the campaign.
This election just became abortion v. immigration with a side dish of inflation. This is not a bad thing for Trump because his stance on abortion is far more progressive than most Republicans. Even though this could hurt Trump with some pro-life groups, it will not be enough to drive them away from the Republican ticket. The key for Republicans is to expose the charade of Biden’s immigration EO for doing nothing more than codifying what he has been doing all along.
I still believe this is Trump’s race to lose, but it is now far too close for comfort. Trump can change that by absolutely dominating the debate stage on Thursday night, but he has to keep his cool and make sure any numbers or “facts” that he spits out are dead on and not enhanced by him, as he often does. Thursday could be the election, so Trump needs to deliver the performance of his career on that debate stage.
